七次降息对储蓄、贷款及货币供应量影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Seven Interest Rate Cuts on Savings Deposits,Loans and Money Supply

我国已连续七次下调利率 ,以 1 998年为界 ,前三次利率下调的基本特征是“恢复性调整” ,即适应物价由高走低的变化。后四次利率下调则是“调控性调整” ,主要针对 1 997年 1 0月以来我国首次出现物价负增长的现象 ,央行试图适度放松银根。本研究采用月度数据 ,分段对比分析。实证结果表明 :(1 )在 1 995年 1月— 1 999年 1 0月期间 ,我国居民储蓄存款和金融机构贷款的利率弹性不是表现在总量变动上而是表现在结构变动上。 (2 )影响储蓄变动的第一因素是股市变动 ,其次是个人收入 ,再次是利率 ;影响金融机构贷款变动的第一因素是金融机构存款的变化 ,其次是固定资产投资的变动。 (3 )七次利率下调减缓了货币流动性下降 。

The seven successive cuts of interest rates are featured by “recovery adjustments” for the first three cuts and “regulatory adjustments” for the last four cuts.The first three cuts were made in parallel with the decline of prices,and the last four were made in response to the negative growth of prices appeared for the first time in October 1997 so as to easy money.This study was made by cross stage comparative analysis based on monthly statistics.The result of empirical study shows:(1)The elasticity of interest rate on household deposits and financial institution loans gets involved with deposit structure rather than the total amount;(2)The first factor affecting household deposit is the changes in stock market,the second is household income,and the third is interest rate.The first factor affecting financial institution loans is deposits of financial institutions and the second is fixed asset investment;(3)The seven downward adjustments can moderate the decline of the currency liquidity to some extent,but not large.