基于SEIR模型的流行性腮腺炎暴发疫情控制效果评价

Evaluation of the effect of measures for mumps outbreak control by SEIR model

目的定量评价学校流行性腮腺炎暴发疫情控制措施效果,为制定流行性腮腺炎暴发疫情防控措施提供参考。方法拟合SEIR模型,计算理论发病数,对控制效果进行评价;并加入应急接种措施,评价不同条件下应急接种控制效果。结果不采取控制措施时,将发生694例感染者,为实际发病人数的9.77倍,流行时间将达到120d,远超过实际流行的77d;假定条件下,在首发病例出现当日和出现7日后接种,发病人数分别为37人和127人;当疫苗保护率为85%和95%时,发病人数分别为112人和53人;当接种率为80%和90%时,发病人数分别为150人和78人。结论学校防控措施效果明显;越早实施应急接种和保持高的接种率能达到更好的控制效果。

Objective To quantitatively evaluate the effect of mumps outbreak control and provide evidence for developing strategies for control the desease.Methods To compute the theoretical number of case and evaluate the effect of control measures by the SEIR model;and evaluate the effect of emergency vaccination based on different conditions.Results Without any control measures,the theoretical number of case was 694 person which was 9.77 times the reality,and it will last for 120 days compare to the real period for 77 days;in case of the presumption,if the vaccination was conducted on 0 and 7 days after the onset of the first case,the number of case were 37 and 127;the number of case were 112 and 53 when the protective rate were 85%,95% respectively;and the number of case were 150 and 78 when the immunization coverage rate were 80%,90%respectively.Conclusions The measures which were conducted on the school were greatly limited the prevalence of disease;and we can get the better effect in case of the early emergency vaccination and high immunization rate.