政策规则、政策效应、政策协调:现阶段中国货币政策取向研究

Policy Rule, Policy Effect and Policy Coordination: Inspecting the Orientation of China's Monetary Policy Since 1998

本文在重新核算年度货币供应和货币流通速度的基础上 ,构造了从新古典主义到凯恩斯主义的货币政策规则参照体系 ,用以辩识中国货币政策的积极与消极以及顺周期与逆周期性质。本文依据郑超愚 (1 996)的结构主义模型描述的与开放经济相关的中国宏观经济时间特征 ,揭示了非均衡汇率政策对货币政策扩张性操作的外部约束 。

This paper constructs the monetary policy rule system spreading from New Classical style to Keynesisan one, and on the basis of the re-calculation of money supply and velocity, identifies the active / positive and con-cycle/pro-cycle position of China′s monetary policy. The expost measure of monetary policy effect demonstrates that the orientation of China′s monetary policy has been tending to be contractionary since 1998. This paper applies a structuralistic model, which describes China′s macro-economic dynamics related to open economy, to reveal the external constraint the disequilibrum exchange policy has brought to the expansive operation of China's monetary policy, and proposes some recommendation for the coordination of fiscal, monetary and exchange policies during deflation.