中国证券市场风险分析基本框架的研究

The Framework of Risk Analysis on the Chinese Securities Markets

本文从证券监管角度界定了证券市场风险概念 ,在此基础上对证券市场风险的内涵进行了理论分析 ,提出了构建我国证券市场分析体系的基本框架。证券市场风险是指由于某种或多种影响证券市场价格波动的因素发生变异 (非理性变化 ) ,引起证券市场价格非理性巨幅波动 ,致使资产 (证券 )迅速贬值 (或虚假增值 ) ,各经济主体蒙受损失的可能性。证券市场风险本质上是由风险因素、风险事故、风险结果递进联系而呈现的可能性。证券市场风险因素是证券市场风险事故赖以发生的客观条件 ,有系统因素和非系统因素之分 ,这些因素可能正常地起作用 ,也可能非正常地起作用 (风险因素发生变异 )。证券市场风险事故是由变异风险因素引起的证券市场价格非理性波动 ,即价格波动偏离合理价格和某种合理状态。证券市场风险结果是证券市场风险事故给证券市场带来的直接影响 ,即证券资产迅速贬值 (股灾 ) ,各经济主体 (投资者、筹资者、国家 )蒙受损失。证券市场风险分析就是要对证券市场中的风险事故———市场价格非理性波动 ,即价格偏离进行分析。价格偏离表现为市场价格对其价值 (或均衡价格 )的偏离 ;对充分准确反映信息的合理价格的偏离 ;价格走势对宏观经济走势的背离。这三个方面的分析构成我国证券市场潜在风险分析的基?

This paper gives securities market risk a definition,meanwhile,analyzes the natures of the securities market risk and puts forward the basic framework for Chinese securities market risk analysis.\;The securities market risk we study is defined as a kind of probability by which every economic body encounters olss on condition of assets' rapid devaluation(or false value increases),because of a non\|rational fluctuation of security market prices by a big margin,The analysis of risk is to study the non\|rational fluctuation of market prices,namely the phenomenon of market prices' deviation from real value,from a reasonable price full of information and the trend of prices' deviation from macroeconomy.These consist of our basic analysis framework of potential risk on the Chinese securities markets.