摘要
目的:对我国2015年核磁共振成像设备(MRI)配置数量进行预测。方法:分别采用指数平滑法、滞后模型预测法和需求法进行预测。结果:3种方法得到我国2015年MRI预测值分别为4 347台、4 209台、5 423台,中位数为4 347台。结论:尽管各种预测技术方法不同、结果不尽相同,但这些预测有助于为我国大型医用设备配置与规划提供循证信息。
Objective： To forecast the number of MRI in China in 2015. Methods： The number of MRI was forecasted through exponential smoothing, lag model and demand method, respectively. Results： The forecasted MR｜ numbers by three methods were 4 347, 4 209 and 5 423 in 2015, respectively, with a median of 4 347. Conclusion： Although the results of various methods are not exactly the same, the forecasted data could help provide evidence-based information for the allocation of major medical equipments in China.
出处
《中国卫生资源》
2013年第1期41-43,共3页
Chinese Health Resources
