当前中国老龄化的储蓄效应及其未来影响——基于日本的经验借鉴

The Current Saving Effect of Aging in China and Its Impact in the Future:Based on the Empirical Facts in Japan

本文运用中国1990—2009年省际面板数据和日本1955—2009年的年度相关数据,针对老龄化的储蓄效应进行了研究。经典的生命周期储蓄理论对动态的人口老龄化过程并不能提供很好的解释,老龄化的储蓄效应具有阶段性特征。人均预期寿命的延长是该时期中国老年人口比率上升的一个重要因素,同时也阶段性地提高了人们的储蓄动机和国民储蓄率。借鉴日本的经验,在不久的将来,随着中国人口、经济和社会各项事业的均衡发展,中国未来的老龄化进程将会显著降低国民储蓄率。

This paper studies saving effects of aging using the 1990--2009 inter-provincial panel data of China and the 1955--2009 time series data of Japan. The classic life-cycle saving theory does not provide a good explanation for the dynamic population aging process. That is, the saving effects of aging show stage characteristics. In the period we studied, the increasing of China＇s eider dependency ratio is due to the extension of average life expectancy as well as other factors, which improves the people＇s saving motives and the national saving rate. Learning from the empirical facts of Japan, We conclude that the aging process in China will significantly reduce the national savings rate in the near future, along with the balanced development of China＇s population, economy and society.