欧债危机对中欧贸易的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the European Debt Crisis on China-EU Trade

通过考察欧债危机下我国对欧贸易额、贸易结构、贸易比重的变化,利用相关数据,建立了ARMA模型,进一步定量分析中欧贸易总额实际值与预测值的差别。利用近四年来月度数据,建立ARIMA模型,对未来5个月的进出口贸易总额进行了预测,最后提出了应对欧债危机,促进中欧贸易的建议。

This paper researches on the change of the EU trade volume, trade structure and the proportion of trade, uses the relevant data, sets up ARMA model and further deeply analysis the difference between actual and predicted values of the total import and export trade between China and the EU. Then, on this basis, we use the monthly data from the past four years, set up the ARIMA model and forecast the total import and export trade in the next five months, and then put forwards corresponding suggestions on how to expand our trade with the EU.