2012年航运市场回顾与2013年市场展望

The shipping market in 2012 and looking forward

展望2013年，散运需求增长无法从根本上缓解运力过剩的压力，北美大规模的原油和天然气生产则不利于原油和成品油轮运输；集运方面，班轮公司将致力于淡化供需关系对运价的作用以“坚守”运价。

The global economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace than previous years. BIMCO believes that 2013 will be the turning point on the macroeconomic scene. The collapse of the financial markets in 2008 has taken its toll on ship owners who, in their predictions of a continued high growth in world trade back then, had ordered newbuildings at an unprecedented level. The effects of this overly-optimistic market outlook continue to haunt ship owners, who are trying their best to manage the overhang of tonnage by slow-steaming, idling and recycling. Coming into 2012, freight rates declined significantly and earnings dropped. The Capesize vessels were hurt the most, with freight rates falling below all other segments despite offering much higher cargo capacity. The dip is obviously a direct consequence of the massive overhang of tonnage, coupled with weaker demand. The world’s largest oil consumer, the US, might put downward pressure on seaborne demand in the coming years as the domestic production of oil and natural gas is expected to increase immensely, according to the International Energy Agency. In the oil product tankers sector, freight rates have been depressed throughout most of the year, with the summer months being the low point, but rate hikes during the Autumn and early Winter indicate that a slowly improving market may be in the making, potentially already next year. Going forward, the liner segment is about to settle for lower growth rates than those that were once the norm. Globalisation is expected to continue as the main driver, but stronger intra-Asian demand rather than a speedy return to high demand from Europa and US is on the cards for the coming years. Going forward, the route to and perspective of recovery will greatly depend on the container trade’s ability to balance the supply side to demand.