日出东方

A rising sun in the east

不少人乐观地认为，亚洲经济复苏将带动泛太平洋贸易的增长。但是，货运量的增长能否赶得上运力的增长呢？

Optimism is growing that an Asian economic recovery will lift trans-Pacific trade. The economies of China, India and Vietnam are projected to grow faster in 2013 than they did in 2012, raising hopes in the maritime industry that the major east-west trade lanes serving Asia again will be engines of growth. China’s economy is projected to grow 8.5 percent this year, India’s GDP will increase 5.4 percent, and Vietnam’s economy is forecast to increase 6 percent. By most every measurement, 2012 was a disappointment for cargo interests, carriers and ports in the east-west trade lanes. Europe slipped into recession, dragging the Asia-Europe trade down with it. Manufacturing in Asia declined, so U.S. exports of raw materials and scrap products to China dropped. Global container capacity increased 7.2 percent last year, noticeably higher than growth in demand, according to research analyst and consulting firm Alphaliner. Carriers this year will take on a record amount of new capacity. Global container capacity is scheduled to increase 9.8 percent in 2013. Trade conditions will improve this year, with the U.S. and China leading the way. IMA Asia expects U.S. GDP to increase 3.2 percent in 2013, up from 2.6 percent last year. China’s GDP will increase at least 8 percent, with some estimates as high as 8.5 percent, compared with 7.7 percent in 2012. Industry analysts see another year of volatility in freight rates in the major east-west trades. In early January, average freight rates were 26 percent higher than they were in early 2012.