基于超对策偏好认知信息沟的均衡结局鲁棒性分析

Robustness analysis of equilibrium outcomes based on information-gap of hypergame preference perception

建立了反映超对策结局偏好认知不确定性的信息沟模型,对超对策均衡结局进行了鲁棒性分析。对于给定的不确定参数,通过在初始偏好认知向量的基础上迭代定义一序列新的偏好向量集合,构建超对策偏好认知信息沟模型。基于信息沟模型,通过确定使初始偏好认知下的超对策均衡结局集保持不变的最大不确定参数来讨论超对策均衡结局的鲁棒性。最后,一个军事例子说明了分析方法的实用有效性。

The intormation-gap model which represents the uncertainty of hypergame outcome preference perception is established and the robustness analysis of equilibrium outcomes of hypergame is discussed. For a given uncertainty parameter, by iteratively defining a sequence of sets of preference vectors which are sueces sively further from the nominal preference perception vector, the information-gap model for hypergame prefer- ence perception is designed. The robustness of equilibrium outcomes of hypergame is analyzed based on the in- formation-gap model by determining the greatest value of the uncertainty parameter for which the set of equilib- rium solutions is the same as the nominal equilibrium set. A military example illustrates the proposed method at the end.