货币政策对房价动态冲击效果研究——基于供求关系视角

A Research on Dynamic Impact Effect of Monetory Policy on the Housing Price——Based on the Relationship Between Supply and Demand Perspective

基于VECM模型,利用脉冲响应基于供求关系视角来分析货币政策对房价的动态冲击效果。结果表明:信贷余额对房价的冲击作用为正向,短期内逐渐增加直至峰值,而长期持续的作用效果有所减缓;货币供给量对房价的冲击作用也为正,效果最大且具有较强的长期持续作用效果;而利率对房价的短期冲击效果为正,长期来逐渐转变为负的持续作用效果,利率调控手段具有时滞效果。合理地利用货币政策的组合调控工具将有利于避免单一货币政策手段功能的有限性,有助于有效调控房价。

Based on the VECM model,this paper will use impulse response to analyse dynamic impact effect of monetary policy on the housing price on the between supply and demand perspective. The results showes that：the impact effect of the credit balance on the housing price is positive and gradually increases in the short term until the peak, but long - term sustainability of the effect is decreased ; the impact effect of the money supply on the housing price is also positive, the largest and has a strong the long - term sustainable effect ; the impact effect of the interest rate in short- term on the housing price is positive and in a long time gradually transformed into a negative sustained effect, and the interest rate control means has a time delay effect. Reasonablly using a combination of monetary policy control tools will help avoid the limited nature of the single monetary policy function, helping to control housing price.