中国能源消费与GDP关系的实证分析——基于参数与非参数回归模型

The Empirical Analysis of China’s Energy Consumption and GDP——Based on Parameters and Nonparametric Regression Model

采用1980～2011年的年度数据,对我国能源消费与GDP之间的关系进行了实证分析。通过线性回归模型、引入虚拟变量的非线性回归模型以及非参数回归方法对能源消费与GDP关系进行了拟合分析。从拟合效果来看,相对于线性回归模型,引入虚拟变量的非线性回归模型以及非参数回归方法更能有效地拟合能源消费与GDP之间的关系,最后提出相应政策建议。

On the bases of data from 1980 to 2011, this paper used linear regression model,nonlinear regression model with dummy variables and nonparametric regression model to make an empirical study of the relationship between China＇s energy consumption and GDP. The finding are as follows： from the fitting point of view, as opposed to the linear regression model, nonlinear regression model with dummy variables and non - parametric regression method are more effective in fitting the relationship between energy consumption and GDP. This paper also provided some useful policy recommendations.