中国人口流迁与区域经济增长收敛性研究

Internal Migration and Regional Economic Growth Convergence:Panel Data Analysis of China(1980-2010)

改革开放以来,中国人口流迁的主要方向是从中西部欠发达省份流向东部发达省份。文章运用新古典模型,使用1980～2010年中国各省经济增长的面板数据分析人口净迁移对区域经济增长收敛性的影响。研究结果表明,总体而言,过去30年间中国区域人均GDP增长呈现出显著的条件收敛态势,省际人口净迁移对区域增长收敛起着促进作用,但力度很小;东、中、西三大地区的模型分析表明,中国区域经济增长不存在"俱乐部收敛"现象,人口净迁移对东部地区和西部地区经济增长影响不显著,但人口净迁出对中部地区经济增长产生了不利影响。文章认为,由于流迁人口的年龄结构和受教育状况与全国平均水平相比具有优势,制约了人口净迁移对区域经济增长收敛性的促进作用。

Since the reform and opening up,the main direction of internal migration in China has been from the less developed provinces of central and western areas to the developed provinces of eastern coastal areas.By using neoclassical model and panel data of thirty provinces from 1980 to 2010,this paper analyzes the impacts of net migration on convergence of China's regional growth.The result shows that,in the past 30 years,regional per capita GDP growth in China generally presents a significant conditional convergence trend,and inter-provincial net migration plays an active role of promoting regional growth,although the intensity is very small.We also analyze the impacts of net migration on convergence of economic growth in the eastern,central and western regions respectively.It demonstrates that club convergence does not exist in China's regional growth,and although net migration has no significant effect on convergence of economic growth in the eastern and western regions,population outflow has negative impacts on economic growth in the central region.This article explains the impacts of migration on regional convergence by not only the migrants' amount,but also their education level and age structure as well as their different influence to the emigration areas and the immigration areas.