独生子女死亡总量及变化趋势研究

"Only-child-death" Family and Its Developing Trends under the Current Family Planning Policy

文章以1990、2000和2010年人口普查数据为基础,对全国育龄妇女二孩生育行为、生育水平和生育进度进行分析,通过2005年全国人口1%抽样调查数据和计算机仿真模型估计2010年全国独生子女总量在1.45亿左右,累计死亡独生子女超过100万。在现行生育政策下,预计2050年全国独生子女总量在3亿左右,累计死亡独生子女将超过1 184万,每年新增死亡独生子女的总量将由目前的9.5万上升到2050年的56万左右。由于"失独"家庭规模不断扩大,政府和全社会应重视和解决这一群体面临实际问题。

Based on the Chinese census data of 1990,2000 and 2010,this paper has analyzed the fertility of the second birth,TFR and progression fertility,used the 1% sample of 2005 and 2010 census data to set up the population simulation model.Using the simulation model,this paper has estimated the total population of only-child is 145 million in 2010 and only-child-death population is 1.08 million since the family planning policy conducted in China.If the current family planning policy keeps going in the future,the total only-child population will reach 300 million and the only-child-death population will increase to 11.84 million in 2050.And the new only-child-death family will increase from 95 thousand in 2010 to 560 thousand for each year in 2050.For the population size of only-child-death family increasing,government and society should pay more attention to the issue.