我国城市化动力机制的阶段差异

Phase differences of China's urbanization dynamic mechanism

对我国城市化动力机制的阶段差异进行了面板数据分位数回归分析,在城市化的不同发展阶段,驱动因素各有不同。一般地说,投资对城市化的促进弹性不高且呈下降趋势;工业发展在城市化的起步阶段发挥着重要作用;在城市化的中后期,第三产业的驱动作用较为稳定且高于第二产业;在城市化的整个过程中,科技与教育都具有稳定的推动作用;财政支出比重的扩大对城市化的驱动效果并不明显。为促进城市化的快速发展,应积极刺激消费、调整区域产业结构布局、重视发展科技与教育、调动市场机制对城市化的驱动作用。

Panel data quantile regression analysis about the different phase of the dynamic mechanism of China＇ s urbanization claims that the urbanization - driven elements are different in the different phase of urbanization development. The elasticity of investment is not high and downward trend. The second industry plays an important role in the initial stage of urbanization, but the third industry＇ s driving force is stable and greater than the second industry in high - level urbanization. Technology and education play stable roles in promoting urbanization at every phase, but the effect to urbanization of expanding government expenditure are not obvious. So we should stimulate consumption, adjust regional industrial structure and layout, emphasize on the development of technology and education, play the urbanization - driven role of market mechanisms.