关于我国ST上市公司的财务特征及预测的实证分析——以制造业为例

On China listed company's financial characteristics and prediction's demonstrative analysis——take manufacture industry as example

本文以ST(Special Treatment,特别处理)上市公司为研究对象,选取了31家在2010年由于财务困难被特别处理的上市公司和31个规模相近的非ST上市公司为样本,首先通过计算代表性财务指标并比较t值的方法确定了ST上市公司与非ST上市公司在财务特征上的差异,之后在上述各财务指标中各选择两者差异最大的财务指标建立用来预测的回归模型,从以不同类型数据为样本得出的若干模型中选取以2009年相关数据为样本的模型作为最终的Z值判定模型。研究结果表明:①ST上市公司在短期偿债能力、资产管理效率和长期偿债能力三方面与非ST上市公司有明显差异,而在盈利能力和市价比率方面则差异不大;②Z值判定模型在财务困境发生的前一年预测准确率最高,可达90%以上。因此该模型可直接应用于实际,为上市公司管理层、股东以及其他利益相关者提供预测信息,从而依此作出相关决策。

This paper took ST listing corporations as the research object.This paper selected 31 listing corporations which are special treated because of financial difficulties in 2010 and 31 similar scale of non-ST listing corporations as samples.Firstly,by computing the representative financial indexes and comparing the T values,we could determine the financial characteristic difference between ST listing Corporations and non-ST listing Corporations.Then we chose the financial indexes of the greatest difference to establish regression models for forecasting.We selected the model which took the relevant data of 2009 as sample for the ultimate Z value decision model from these models.Here is the research result.Firstly,ST listing Corporations have obvious difference in three aspects： the short-term solvency,asset management efficiency and long-term debt paying ability,but have little difference on profitability and market price ratio.Secondly,the prediction accuracy of the Z value decision model was highest in a year before the financial trouble occurred and even mo re than 90%.Therefore, the model can be directly applied to the actual, and provide predictive information for the management of listing companies,shareholders and other stakeholders. So they can make the relevant decisions accordingly.