重新审视中国粮食生产条件和结构的变化趋势

NEW RESEARCH FOR CHANGE TRENDS OF GRAIN PRODUCT CONDITIONS AND STRUCTURES IN CHINA

中国粮食生产条件变化趋势的有利方面表现在需求压力增大 ,市场前景看好 ;激励机制日臻完善 ,种粮积极性得以恢复 ;粮食增长的资源潜力尚可挖掘 ,技术潜力不可低估。不利方面表现在人均耕地递减 ,后备资源不足 ;灌溉用水日益短缺 ,环境恶化 ,生态失衡 ;加入世界贸易组织之后 ,粮食生产受到的冲击会加大。粮食生产结构的变化趋势在其组成结构上表现为谷物的绝对优势地位不会变 ,薯类和豆类比重略有上升 ;粗粮比重上升 ,细粮比重下降。在其地域结构上表现为尽管粮食增长中心北移的趋势不可逆转 ,但东部地区仍然是粮食增长的主体。

First of all,author analyses the favorable and unfavorable change trends of coming grain product conditions in China.The author regards that the expanding grain demand pull,the improving incentive mechanisms of grain and the probably excavated potential of grain production are beneficial to grain production of China.In the same time,the author points out that the decreasing cultivated land, shortage of water resources,ecological and environmental degradation and joining the WTO are unfavorable of the grain production in China.Secondly,the author analyses the future change trend of structure of grain production in China.In terms of component structure of grain,the absolute advantage status of cereal still mains,proportion of beans and tubers will rise bit by bit.Proportion of flour and rice will descend,and proportion of coarse food grain will ascend accordingly.In terms of regional structure of grain,the trends which total yield of North China increases and which total of South China decreases cannot be reversed,however,East China still is major area of grain increase of China.