运用移动平均法对黑龙江省麻疹发病情况进行统计预测

Application of Moving Average Method in the Measles Incidence Statistics Forecast in Heilongjiang Province

目的运用移动平均法对我省麻疹发病情况进行预测,为麻疹防控提供参考,为传染病预测提供方法学借鉴。方法利用黑龙江省2005～2011年麻疹发病数据制定行动阈值,对2012年各周发病数进行预测,并对预测效果进行评价。结果根据过去7年麻疹疫情监测数据分析,我省麻疹2005～2006年发病率呈直线上升趋势,发病率为8.97/10万;2007年直线下降,发病率为0.96/10万;2008年发病略有上升,发病率为3.21/10万,比2007年上升234.38%;2009年发病率呈下降趋势,发病率为2.22/10万,比2008年下降了30.84%;2010年发病达最高峰,是近7年来发病最高的一年,发病率为16.459/10万,比2009年上升642.38%;2011年发病降到最低,发病率为0.151/10万。用2012年发病例数与历年发病例数移动平均数及标准差比较,可预测我省2012～2013年麻疹的发病可能呈现平稳趋势。结论应用传染病疫情的分析预测对麻疹周发病的预测效果良好,可为麻疹提前防控提供依据。该预测法操作简单,预测效果好,并将季节因素考虑进去,是一种实用的传染病预测预报方法。

Objective To use moving average method to forecast the incidence of measles in Heilongjiang Province,and provide reference for the prevention and control of measles,and provide reference for infectious disease prediction methodology.Methods Using 2005~2011 measles incidence data to make a action threshold of 2012 years and doing the number forecast and the forecast effect evaluation.Results Under the past seven years measles epidemic monitoring and data analysis,the province of measles in 2005~2006 incidence shows a linear upward trend,the incidence rate was 8.97/0.1 million;plummeting in 2007,and the incidence rate was 0.96/0.1 million;incidence slightly increase in 2008,and the incidence rate was 3.21/10 million,an increase of 234.38% from 2007;incidence rate declined in 2009,the incidence rate was 2.22/10 million,a decrease of 30.84% compared with 2008;reached a peak incidence in 2010,was nearly incidence highest in seven years year incidence rate 16.459/10 million more than in 2009,an increase of 642.38%;the 2011 incidence minimized the incidence rate of 0.151/10 million.With the number of cases in 2012,with the number of cases over the years moving average and standard deviation comparison,forecast to the incidence of measles in the province from 2012 to 2013 may show a steady trend.Conclusion Application of the epidemic situation of infectious diseases analysis and prediction of the disease to measles weeks prediction effect is good,can provide a basis for measles prevention and control in advance.This prediction method is simple operation,good prediction effect,and taking the seasonal factors into consideration.It is a kind of practical infectious disease prediction method.