玉米免耕技术气候适宜性评价

The Climate Suitability Evaluation of No-tilling Maize

由于不同区域自然条件的差异,农业技术自身特点及对应用环境条件的要求,导致不同农业技术的应用效果存在较大差异和不确定性,对农业技术的适宜区域进行评价对农业技术推广具有重要意义。根据实地调研结果,应用Delphi法确定了农业技术气候适宜性评价的初始指标集,并利用粗糙集理论实现评价指标的筛选,根据模糊数学原理、最小因子定律和耐性定律建立了农业技术气候适宜性评价模型,并对中国玉米免耕技术进行气候适宜性评价。结果表明,决定免耕技术气候适宜性的核心气象因子为温度和降水,而评价免耕技术气候适宜性的关键指标为降水和玉米生育内≥10℃积温。在1981-2010年间,中国玉米免耕技术适宜区域主要包括:东北地区的黑龙江省和吉林省的中东部以及辽宁省,华北地区的河北省、山西省的南部,山东省、河南省、陕西省的中南部、长江中下游的平原与丘陵区、西南地区的重庆市、四川省、云南省、贵州省以及华南地区和海南省。

The agricultural technologies and their application conditions are different due to the difference of regions conditions, so it is difficuh and uncertain to evaluate the effect of existing agricultural technologies. It is of great significance to select reasonable evaluation indexes and build a more scientific and comprehensive model that will help to evaluate the agricultural technologies. According to field surveys and the Delphi method, this paper determined the initial index set for climate suitability evaluation of agricultural technology. Rough Sets was used to select the evaluation indexes. Based on the principle of fuzzy mathematics and the law of the minimum and tolerance, the model of climate suitability evaluation was established, and then the and the climate suitability of no-tilling maize in China was evaluated using this model. The results showed as followed： the core meteorological factors of no-tilling were temperature and precipitation, while the key indicators were precipitation and ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature. From 1981 to 2010, the suitable areas of no-tilling mazie in China included： the east of Heilongjiang and Jilin province, Liaoning, southern Hebei and Shanxi, Shandong, He＇nan, the central and southern Shaanxi, the Lower Yangtze Region, Chongqing, Siehuan, Yunnan, Guizhou and South China. So there was a bright future for no-tilling maize.