旅游发展与中国经济增长效率——基于Malmquist指数和系统GMM的实证分析

Tourism Development and Economic Growth Efficiency in China: An Empirical Analysis Based on Malmquist Index and GMM Estimation

文章首先采用DEA-Malmquist生产率指数对1999～2009年中国省际经济增长效率进行了测算,并运用动态面板系统广义矩估计方法实证分析了旅游发展对经济增长效率的影响机制。实证结果显示,中国省际经济增长效率基本上处于低效率水平,但表现出逐渐改善的态势,技术效率是目前推动经济增长效率增长的主要源泉;当期旅游发展对经济增长效率具有显著负向影响,而旅游发展滞后一期则对经济增长效率具有显著正向影响,并且旅游发展对经济增长效率影响呈现出非线性"U"形关系;基础设施和产业结构升级滞后一期在旅游发展对经济增长效率影响过程中具有正向调节作用。

There is a universal consensus that tourism development has a significantly positive effect on economic growth.The positive effect essentially shows that tourism development has a positive effect on the scale of economic growth.The traditional tourism economic development evaluation framework is used as primary yardstick to measure the economic value of the regional tourism industry.However,endogenous economic growth theories,which are different from the classical economic growth hypothesis,show that efficiency change is the key that determines the sustainability of economic growth.In view of this,it may produce a new logical path that tourism development has an effect on economic growth.Whether tourism development has an effect on the scale of economic growth or its effect on the efficiency of economic growth,there is no theoretical conflict.Rather,it is the evolution of the same logical framework of delving into the effect of tourism development on economic growth. This paper is divided in two parts： the efficiency of China＇s economic growth,and the effect of tourism development on it.This paper applies DEA-Malmquist productivity index to calculate provincial economic growth efficiency from 1999 to 2009,and uses dynamic panel system GMM estimation to analyze impact mechanism of tourism development to economic growth in China.Provincial economic growth efficiency in China is basically in the low level,but shows the trend of gradual improvement.Technical efficiency is the main source of economic growth efficiency.From the view of overall average in China,the degree of negative growth of the efficiency of economic growth is gradually declining.In addition to the positive growth of 7.9% and 2.8% in 2007 and 2008,the rest of the year showed a negative growth of the efficiency of economic growth.This indicates that the mode transformation of economic growth effectively improves the efficiency of economic growth,but still doesn＇t completely reverse the negative growth in the efficiency of economic growth with the economic structural adjustment intensifying in recent years,which also reminds us that the efficiency improvement of China＇s economic growth is not a short time process to complete. Current tourism development has a significant negative effect on economic growth efficiency.As long as the existence of value,the operating mechanism of tourism industry structure as the dominant of primary tourism product is a serious impediment to positive effect of tourism development on the efficiency of economic growth.The lag one of tourism development has a significant positive effect on economic growth efficiency,and the effective relationship shows a ＇U＇ shape between tourism development and economic growth efficiency.When tourism development is low,it seems to affect the efficiency of economic growth negatively;once it reaches a certain level,its effect becomes positive.Not only does tourism have a direct effect on the efficiency of economic growth,it also has an effect on a complex conduction mechanism about the effect of tourism development on the efficiency of economic growth.Moreover,infrastructure and the lag one of industrial structure upgrading have significant positive moderating effect between tourism development and economic growth efficiency.