九华山风景区客源市场分析与预测

Analysis and Forecast of Tourist Source Market in Jiuhua Mountain Scenic Resort

以2007～2011年九华山风景区接待游客数量为依托,对九华山客源市场现状进行分析,借助建立GM(1,1)模型对九华山风景区2012～2013年接待游客人数进行了预测。研究结果表明:九华山风景区旅游业发展形势喜人,接待游客人数呈现年递增的良好态势;近期九华山风景区接待游客人数将保持高速增长。基于以上研究结果,对九华山风景区客源市场的开发提出以游客为本,积极开拓客源市场、明确景区定位,突显低碳和绿色经济等相关的建议。

According to tourists data from 2007 to 2011 of Jiuhua Mountain scenic resort,this paper analyzed present situation of tourist source market in Jiuhua Mountain scenic resort and applies the GM(1,1)to forecast the number of tourists in 2012～2013.The result showed that(1) Tourism development situation in Jiuhua Mountain scenic resort was satisfactory with increasing number of tourists year by year.(2)the tourist's number would maintain high growth in near future.And it gives us some related suggestions for exploring tourism market of Jiuhua Mountain scenic resort,such as tourists orientation and actively exploring the tourism market,clear spot positioning,highlighting the low-carbon and green economy and so on.