欠发达地区产业结构变动对生态足迹的影响——基于云南省的案例实证分析

Impact of Industrial Structure Change on Ecological Footprint in Underdeveloped Areas:A Case of Yunnan Province

以云南省为例,综合运用生态足迹、VAR模型和广义脉冲响应函数等模型与方法,在研究云南省三次产业产值与生态足迹变动特征的基础上,进一步分析三次产业产值变动对生态足迹的影响,结果表明:①在近20年来云南省三次产业产值呈现较快增长的趋势下,云南省总量生态足迹也呈现逐年增长的态势。其中,耕地、草地和化石能源用地生态足迹对总量生态足迹的贡献较大,但增长速度相对缓慢;相反,林地、水域和建筑用地生态足迹对总量生态足迹的贡献较小,但呈现较快增长趋势,三次产业经济的较快发展对生态足迹及其要素变动的影响显著。②短期内三次产业发展对生态足迹的影响程度从大到小依次为第一产业>第二产业>第三产业,且三次产业对生态足迹的影响均为正向相关性,但长期来看,第三产业的发展有助于降低区域生态足迹。因此,为推进云南省区域低耗、低碳经济科学持续健康发展,实现区域经济社会与资源环境协调可持续发展,提出应大力发展高原现代特色农业和集约农业,建立具有区域特色的外向型工业园区群,加速推进以旅游业和服务业为主的第三产业的发展进程,向国家申请给予生态补偿和产业补偿政策。

This paper takes Yurman province as an example. It comprehensively used ecological footprint, VAR model and the generalized impulse response function, etc. Based on the analysis of the three industrial developments and the dynamic changes of the ecological footprint, it made a further analysis about the influence of values of three industrial products to the ecological footprint. The results showed that： （1） In the past 20 years, the output value of the three industries showed faster growth in Yunnan, at the same time, its total ecological footprint also showed year-on-year growth trends. From the contribution of the elements of ecological footprint, the ecological footprint of arable land, grassland and fossil energy land had a larger contribution to the total ecological footprint, however, they showed a slower growth; on the contrary, the ecological footprint of forest land, waters and construction land had a smaller contribution to the total ecological footprint, but they showed a faster growth. The faster development of the three industries had a greater impact on the ecological footprint and its elements in Yummn. （2） In the short term, the order of the influence degree from three industrial developments to ecological footprint, followed by the primary industry, secondary and tertiary industry. Besides, the influence of three industries to the ecological footprint was positively relevant. However, in the long term, the development of the tertiary industry have would be contributed to reduce regional ecological footprint. Based on all of the above, to promote the scientific, sustained and healthful development of low-power and low-carbon economy, and achieve coordinated and sustainable development of regional economy and society and resources and environment, we should vigorously develop the plateau modem agriculture and intensive agriculture, and establish the export-oriented industrial park groups with regional characteristic, so that the development of the tertiary industry can be promoted which is mainly based on the tourism and service industry .We should also apply to the state for ecological compensation and industrial compensation policy.