南美白对虾养殖过程中致病微生物生长预测模型的建立

Construction of Growth Predictive Model of Pathogenic Microorganism of Penaeus vannamei Boone Aquaculture Process

试验通过检测,确定南美白对虾养殖水体中四种主要致病微生物,并对不同温度(20℃,25℃,28℃,31℃)下,一个养殖周期内细菌总数和四种菌计数,借助curve expert1.3软件,用MMF,Weibull,Compertz模拟细菌总数随时间变化及采用平方根模型拟合温度对生长速率的影响,分别建立一级,二级模型。结果表明,MMF模拟精度最高,相关系数在0.995 8以上,标准差在0.053以下,并通过31℃下四种菌的实测数值与模型数据进行比较,验证了模型的有效性;二级模型经残差法和因子分析验证,残差值均在±0.005范围内,模型在α=0.01水平可信,偏差因子与精准因子均接近于1,可以很好的预测南美白对虾养殖水体中致病微生物的生长变化。

Abstract Confirmed 4 main kinds of pathogenic microorganisms in Penaeus vannamei Boone aquaculture and counted the sum of bacteria and 4 main kinds of pathogenic microorganisms at different temperatures 20℃, 25 ℃, 28 ℃, 31 ℃in a breeding cycle, which used MMF, Weibull, Compertz models fitting the variation of the total number of bacteria with the time going on and adopted Square root model fitting the temperature influence of the growth rate, and established primary model and secondary model with the helping of curve expert software. The results showed that the MMF model was applied to fit it best, whose correlation was above 0.995 8 and standard error was below 0.053. Verified the effectiveness of the model by comparing observed value of 4 main kinds of bacteria with predicted value at 31℃; Validation of the secondary model with residual method and factor analysis showed that the residual difference of predicted and observed value was within ±0.005, and the value of bias factor and accuracy factor were close to 1.000, which can be used well to predict the growth variation of pathogenic microorganisms in Penaeus vannamei Boone aquaculture.