基于需求预测更新的风险厌恶型报童决策分析

Research on a risk aversion newsboy's optimal strategy based on demand forecast information updating

考虑存在需求预测信息更新下报童的最优订货策略,以均值方差理论为基础,从三类风险厌恶的模型着手,研究了零售商在信息更新的机会下,其决策对渠道的影响。研究结果表明,当决策者在最大化期望收益的同时,希望收益的方差控制在一定范围内时,阈值满足一定条件,信息更新能提高零售商的效用。当决策者在减少收益波动的同时,希望期望收益不低于一定值时,在一定条件下,信息更新同样能提高零售商的效用。最后,结合仿真,分析了采用效用函数模型时,信息更新对零售商决策的影响。

Considering the newsboy＇s optimal purchasing strategy under information updating. Based on the mean-variance formulation, the impact of the retailer＇s decision in three types of risk aversion on the channel is studied. In the first case, the newsboy tries to maximize the expected profit such that the variance of profit is constrained by a certain threshold. In the second case, the objective of the retailer is to minimize the variance of profit subject to an expected target level. This paper shows that in the above two cases, information updating can improve the utility of the retailer under certain conditions. Finally, the numerical simulation shows the effectiveness of demand forecast information updating under mean-variance objective functions.