中国的城市化为什么长期滞后于工业化?——资本密集型投资倾向视角的解释

Why China's Urbanization Lags Behind Industrialization? Explanation from the Perspective of Capital-intensive Investment

现有文献普遍认为中国的城市化长期滞后于工业化是由于户籍制度限制了劳动力流动,本文则从经济发展阶段和资本密集型投资倾向的视角补充了一个新的解释。本文结合跨国数据的分析,同时应用中国省级面板数据和全国层面时间序列数据进行检验后发现:城市化与工业化在一定阶段内的不平衡发展与中国城市部门侧重于资本密集型产业的投资倾向有关。这一倾向使得城市部门的资本深化,吸纳劳动力的能力降低,从而扩大了城市化和工业化之间的差距。所以,为了更好地实现"三化同步",中国需要逐步扭转资本密集型产业的投资倾向,加快城市化的发展进程。

In the process of China＇s economic development, urbanization has severely lagged behind industriali- zation. Present literature attributes the stagnation of urbanization to the urban - rural segregation by the House- hold Registration System, which only provides an explanation from the angle of labor supply. This paper pro- vides a competing explanation from the labor demand angel ： China has invested more capital in the capital - in- tensive industries instead of the labor intensive industries in urban areas. In this case, the capital deepening in the urban areas is unable to absorb more rural surplus labor, which depresses the urbanization process. The em- pirical results indicate that China＇s government should change its capital - intensive - biased policies to narrow the gap between urbanization and industrialization.