基于Panel-VAR模型的我国金融业发展与经济增长关联性的计量检验

An Empirical Analysis on the Relevance of Financial Development and Economic Growth in China Based on Panel-VAR Model

本文采用1997-2010年中国31个省、市的面板数据,通过构建Panel-VAR模型,利用脉冲响应函数以及方差分解方法,对金融发展与经济增长关联性进行了实证分析。研究表明:经济增长、金融发展、固定资产投资和就业总人数之间存在显著的协整关系;金融业发展对经济增长具有长期的正向影响效应;经济增长促进了金融业的发展;金融业发展促进了固定资产投资和就业总人数的增长;固定资产投资对金融业发展具有正向的促进作用,而就业总人数对金融业发展具有负向影响。

In this paper, PVAR model is constructed based on the panel data of China＇s 31 provinces during the period of 1997 to 2010. Using the impulse response function and variance decomposition, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the relevance of financial development and economic growth. The results show that there is a significant co-integration relationship among economic growth, financial development, fixed assets investment and total employment. And the development of the financial industry has a long- term positive impact effect on economic growth as well as promotes the growth of fixed asset investment and employment; economic growth promotes the development of the finance industry; fixed assets investment plays a positive role in financial development, but total employment has a negative impact on the financial development.