中国特大城市能耗变化的影响因素分解及其区域差异

Factor Decomposition of Energy Consumption Changes and Regional Differences in Selected Chinese Mega Cities

特大城市的能耗已从生产领域转向城市功能和自身发展方面,因此其能耗具有与中小城市不同的特性。本文首先分析2010年61个特大城市能耗的空间分布特点,再利用D氏数指分解法对1996年-2010年间32个特大城市的能耗变化做因素分解分析,在综合考虑城市经济增长、人口规模扩大和空间扩张三方面因素的基础上选取经济规模、单位产值能耗、人均能耗、人口密度、能源空间支持等5项指标,计算其对城市能耗的贡献率,分析共性与区域差异。结论显示:城市所处区域(特别是气候条件、资源禀赋)对其能耗量和能源利用方式有较大影响;经济因素仍是特大城市能耗变化的主要原因,经济因素贡献率较大的城市主要分布在东北、华北地区;人口因素在特大城市能耗变化中也占有重要地位,因此低碳型的生活方式是特大城市节能减排的重要途径;紧凑型空间是城市节能减排的有效途径,应提倡精明增长,建设紧凑型城市可以有效地减少能源消耗。

The energy consumption of China＇ s mega cities has transitioned from production areas to urban areas and, therefore, usage differs from that of small and medium-sized cities. Here, we analyze the spatial distribution of energy consumption for 61 Chinese metropolises in 2010 and using a logarithmic mean disivia index conduct a factor decomposition analysis on changes in energy consumption for 32 of these metropolises from 1996 to 2010. Energy consumption factors can be classified as five indicators： scale of GDP, energy consumption per unit of output value, energy consumption per capita, population density and energy spatial supporting coefficient. We found that regional differences and increases in total energy consumption are obvious and energy consumption in eastern China is increasing. Climatic conditions and local resource endowments impact energy consumption and energy utilization modes. Cities with high energy consumption per capita are mainly resource-dependent cities, mega cities and cities in cold regions. Economic factors still play a major role in energy consumption and energy consumption has increased due to growing GDP in northeastern and northern Chinese cities. Demographic factors make a positive contribution to energy consumption, and a low-carbon lifestyle is an important way to reduce energy consumption across mega cities. Compact urban space is also an effective way to conserve energy and urban development should follow a smart growth pattern.