基于G8与BRIC的新能源及可再生能源发电绩效动态评价

Evaluation of New and Renewable Energy Power Generation Performance in G8 and BRIC Nations

新能源及可再生能源发电是各国能源可持续发展战略的重要组成部分。本文针对各种新能源及可再生能源的特点,对各国新能源及可再生能源的潜在资源量予以定义和整理,以此为基础提出新能源及可再生能源发电绩效指数(REPPI),对八国集团和金砖四国从2000年-2008年的新能源及可再生能源发电绩效进行动态评价。之后,使用面板数据模型对新能源及可再生能源发电绩效与宏观经济条件、技术进步、电力消费和R&D投入之间的关系进行分析,研究了各国新能源及可再生能源发电绩效的驱动力。结果表明:发达国家的REPPI普遍高于发展中国家,但REPPI的增长速度却低于发展中国家。新能源及可再生能源资源量丰富的国家,REPPI普遍低于新能源及可再生能源资源量匮乏的国家;技术进步和新能源及可再生能源R&D投入比重在推动REPPI提高方面具有显著作用。最后,给出了促进我国新能源及可再生能源电力发展的政策建议。

The electric power industry is a large energy production sector, energy consumer and source of greenhouse gases. Here, new and renewable energy resources for countries were defined and reorganized according to various new and renewable energies. Solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, biomass and nuclear energy were examined for G8 and BRIC countries from 2000 to 2008. A new and renewable electric power generation performance index （REPPI） is calculated, and shows that the REPPI of developed countries is generally higher than that of developing countries, but REPPI growth rates in developed countries are lower. The REPPI of countries abundant in new and renewable energy resources is generally lower than that of countries with fewer new and renewable energy sources. The relationship between REPPI and macroeconomic conditions, technological progress, electricity consumption and research and development investment were analyzed using a panel data model. According to data availability and previous studies, per capital GDP, patents, electricity consumption, and new and renewable energy research investment ratios were used. We conclude that technological progress and the new and renewable energy research and development ratio have significant effects on promoting and improving REPPI. However, the effect of per capita GDP on REPPI of some countries has been minimal in recent years, indicating that the REPPI of those countries is not simply determined by economic development. In China, performance of new and renewable energy electric power generation is mainly impacted by per capita GDP and electricity consumption. Policy recommendations for promoting the new and renewable energy electric power development are discussed.