产业结构对城镇土地集约利用的影响研究

The Effect of Industrial Structure on Intensive Urban Land Use

本文以STIRPAT模型为基础,采用可行的广义最小二乘法(FGLS)就产业结构对土地利用的影响进行实证分析。结果表明,从全国层面看,伴随产业结构构成效应和竞争效应的提高,城镇土地利用的集约化水平分别表现出显著的U型和倒U型曲线关系,且产业结构构成效应和竞争效应的提高均有利于土地集约利用。从地区层面看,现阶段东部地区产业结构优化水平仍未达到促进土地集约利用的有效区间;中部地区产业结构优化升级有利于土地的集约利用;西部地区产业结构优化对土地利用影响不显著。各地区产业结构竞争效应有利于城镇土地集约利用,其中西部地区多数省份的产业结构竞争效应指数最接近最优阀值,而中部地区偏离最优阀值最远。

High-speed urbanization has resulted in many land resource problems. A transformation in economic development is the fundamental starting point for the intensive use of land, in which industrial structure adjustment is key. Studying the effects of industrial structure on intensive land use is of important practical significance to the coordinated development of any transformation in the mode of economic growth and industrial structure optimization. We constructed an evaluated index system for urban land use, and then used principal component analysis to estimate the composite index of land intensive use. We used shift share analysis to estimate the composition effect and competition effect of industrial structure, and panel data feasible generalized least square to analyze the effects of industrial structure on land use based on an extended STIRPAT model using provincial panel data for 2003-2009. The results show that, along with the increasing composition effect and competition effect of industrial structure, the intensive level of urban land use follows a U-shaped and inverted U-shaped trend. At this stage, improving the industrial structural composition effect and competition effect is conducive to the intensive use of land. The industrial structure optimization level of the eastern region has not yet reached the effective range for promoting intensive land use. The optimization of industrial structure in the central region is conducive to intensive land use; the effect of industrial structure optimization on land use is not significant in the western region. The competition effect index in the provinces of western China is closest to the optimal threshold, followed by the eastern region; central regions showed the greatest deviation from the optimal threshold. The results indicate that simple pursuit of the strategy to upgrade industrial structure in accordance with the laws of industrial evolution may not have a significant impact on intensive use of land. We should ensure the competitiveness of dominant industries, and systematically promote the optimization of industrial structure. These results have important policy implications for China＇ s adjustment and optimization of industrial structure.