辽宁电力消费与经济增长关系研究

Research on Relationship of Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Liaoning

辽宁自改革开放以来经济高速发展,电力消费逐年上升,为正确认识经济发展与电力消费之间的关系,明确电力发展方向,运用协整理论对辽宁1978—2010年间经济发展与电力消费的关系进行实例研究,验证辽宁省国民生产总值GDP(Gross Domestic Product)与电力消费之间存在长期协整关系,得出短期内存在从电力消费到GDP增长的单向Granger因,说明电力缺乏将造成经济发展停滞,"经济发展,电力先行"政策将长期坚持;并采用H-P滤波技术得出GDP与电力消费的趋势成分和波动成分,验证二者存在协整关系,并得出辽宁电力消费与经济发展存在趋同的发展趋势和周期性波动关系的结论,建设性提出未来辽宁电力发展的方向。

Liaoning economical and electricity consumption sustain growth since reformation and opening.This text is researched for the correct relationship of economical growth and electricity consumption to guide the direction of electricity construction development.Based on cointegration theory research the relationship of Liaoning during the period from 1978 to 2010 economical growth with electricity consumption through example,.First,it verifies the existence of long-term cointegration between Liaoning GDP（Gross Domestic Product） and electricity consumption,and short-term unindirectional Granger causality from electricity consumption to economical growth,it shows that the lack of electricity power will block the economical growth,and the policy of ＂Economic development,Electric power construction first＂ will carry out for a long time.Second,the H.P filter is applied to get the trend component and cycle component of GDP and electricity consumption,verify the existence of cointegration relationship,and indicate the convergence trend and periodic fluctuation of Liaoning GDP and electricity consumption.