摘要
以陕北地区年降水量系列为基础资料,选取12种概率分布模型,分别按矩法、极大似然法估计参数,并参照离差平方和最小准则OLS进行了参数优选,最终优选出在OLS准则下的最佳分布模型、参数计算方法以及最优分布不同频率下的设计值。结果表明:在OLS准则下,对数正态分布(LN2)或广义极值分布(GEV)拟合效果好。文中计算结果可以为水利工程的规划设计与运行以及水资源管理提供依据。
Based on the annual precipitation data of north region of Shaanxi,using the moment method,maximum likelihood estimation and probability-weighted moment method,the best theoretical frequency distribution,best method of estimating parameters and annual precipitation of different frequency have been obtained by OLS standard from 12 types of frequency distribution model.The results show that LN2 and GEV have good fitting.The results can provide the basis for water conservancy project planning,design,construction and operation management.
出处
《水资源与水工程学报》
2012年第5期48-50,共3页
Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51179160
50879070
50579065)
高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20110204110017)资助
关键词
降水频率分析
概率分布模型
参数估计
陕北地区
precipitation frequency analysis
probabilistic distribution model
parameter estimating
north region of Shaanxi province
