高关水库入库径流状态预测

Forcast of runoff state inflow Gaoguan Reservoir

依据高关水库1971-2010年入库径流量资料,应用均值标准差法建立5级分级标准。针对径流量为相依随机变量的特点,以各阶自相关系数为权重,运用马尔可夫链模型预测未来一年的入库径流量状态。结果表明:该方法直观、预测准确、计算简便,为区域径流量的中长期预测提供了新的分析途径。

According to runoff stroage data from 1971 to 2010,five level standards were established by using mean and standard deviation method.Appionted at the runoff characteristics of dependent random variables,taking all orders autocorrelation coefficients as weights,Markov chain model was used to predict the runoff state in the next year.The results show that the method can provide a new feasible way for regional and long-term runoff prediction,and is direct,accurate and simple.