考虑消费者价格预测影响的牛鞭效应研究

Analysis of Bullwhip Effect under Customers ' Price Forecasting Behavior

考虑一个供应商和一个零售商组成的两级供应链,零售商运用移动平均和指数平滑技术预测提前期需求,分析价格波动下消费者的价格预测行为对牛鞭效应的影响。结果表明,消费者的价格预测行为有助于减小牛鞭效应:一方面,消费者越关注历史价格的波动,越有助于减小牛鞭效应;另一方面,消费者观察到更长期的历史价格可以进一步减小牛鞭效应。文章同时研究了一个供应商和多个零售商组成的两级供应链,并推导出总订货量相对于总需求量波动的牛鞭效应解析式。

In a single two-stage supply chain with one supplier and one retailer, where the retailer uses the mov- ing average（MA） and exponential smoothing（ES） forecasting techniques, we analyze the impact of price forecast by customers on Bullwhip Effect（ BWE） under price fluctuation. The results show that, customers＇ price forecas- ting behavior can reduce BWE. First, the more customers concern about price fluctuation, the smaller the BWE is; second, a longer-term historical price that cusfomers observe can further reduce the BWE. We extend these results to multiple retailers and derive the analytical total order quantity increase in variability.