福建省财政收入与地区生产总值关系的误差修正模型及其应用

Study on the Relationship Between Financial Revenue and GDP in Fujian Province Based on the Error Correction Model

本文在分析1979～2010年福建省财政收入和GDP演变轨迹的基础上,应用协整理论,分析了福建省财政收入与GDP之间的关系,结果表明它们都是2阶单整序列,但二者之间没有协整关系;而财政收入年度增量与GDP年度增量之间具有协整关系。根据协整模型,GDP年度增量变动时,财政收入年度增量将同方向成比例变动,均衡比例系数是0.1749。进一步地,建立了财政收入年度增量与GDP年度增量序列误差修正模型,得到的结果是:误差修正项的系数为负,符合反向修正机制,调整量是前一年偏离长期比例关系的偏离幅度的1.0716倍。格兰杰因果关系检验表明,从长期看GDP年度增量是财政收入年度增量的决定因素,短期内财政收入年度增量也是GDP年度增量的影响因素。因此,可以用GDP的变化来解释和预测财政收入的变化,并对福建省"十二五"期间财政收入进行了预测。最后,归纳了研究结果并讨论了三个相关问题。

Based on the analysis of the evolution tracks of financial revenue and GDP in Fujian province from 1979 to 2010, this paper analyzes the relationship between financial revenue and GDP by means of co-integration theory, and finds out the financial revenue series and the GDP series are both I （2）series, however,co-integra- tion relationship does not exist in them instead in annual financial revenue increment and annual GDP increment. According to the co-integration model, if the latter changes one unit, then the former will change in proportion in the same direction,and the equilibrium ratio coefficient willbe 0. 1749. Furthermore, we establishes the error correction model of the annual revenue increment series and the annual GDP increment series, and the result is： the coefficient of the error correction term is negative, which accords with the reverse correction mechanism. In addition,the adjusting amount is 1. 0716 times eomparied with the last deviation range of deviating from long-term proportion relationship. The Granger causality test shows that the annual increment of GDP is the decisive factor of the annual increment of revenue in a long term, and the annual increment of revenue also influences the annu- al increment of GDP in a short term. Thus, changes of GDP can be used to explain and predict changes of reve- nue, and this paper predicts financial revenue of the National Twelfth Five-Year Plan period in Fujian province. It summarizes the results and discusses three related issues finally.