基于GM(1.1)模型的出国留学人数预测研究

Study on Prediction of the Number of Study Abroad Based on GM (1.1) Model

基于有限的出国留学人数的数据,利用GM(1.1)模型建立了我国出国留学人数的预测模型。结果表明,模型的预测精度等级为好。预测结果为国家有关部门掌握出国留学的趋势,制定有关政策提供了辅助决策依据。

Based on the limited data on the number of study abroad,the paper used GM（1.1） model to establish prediction model of the number of Chinese studying abroad.The results show that the accuracy level of prediction model is good.Forecast results provide secondary decision-making for the national departments grasping the trend of studying abroad and developing policies.