摘要
针对小区域因历史灾情数据缺乏,传统统计模型旱灾风险分析准确度不高的缺陷,利用模糊数学方法,建立了评估小区域农业旱灾风险的数学模型。该模型的优点是能以最少的样本最佳地求解风险评估问题,并能反映风险评估的模糊不确定性。最后,用该模型评估了山西省阳泉县2001-2010年的农业旱灾风险指数。结果表明,该方法意义清晰,可供当地防旱减灾工作参考。
In general, the precision of risk analysis of traditional statistics model is not high due to insufficient information of historical disasters records. Considering this limit, fuzzy risk assessment model of agricultural drought was introduced in use of fuzzy mathematics. This model has the advantage of being able to optimally solve the risk assessment problems with the least samples and being able to reflect the fuzzy uncertainty of risk assessment. Finally this model was applied to assess the drought risk indices of Yangquan City in Shanxi Province since 2001 to 2010. The results show that the proposed method has an drought disaster prevention and reduction. explicit physical sense and could give a reference to local
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第1期153-158,共6页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家自然科学基金重大研究计划--重点支持项目(91224007)
国家自然科学基金项目(70672020)
河北省教育厅课题(SZ2010518)
关键词
模糊
旱灾
信息扩散
风险
阳泉市
fuzzy
drought disaster
information diffusion
risk
Yangquan City
