灾害环境下生命线系统的级联失效研究

Cascading failure of lifeline systems under disaster environment

以供水管网为例,使用在供水管网水力延时模拟软件EPANET 2.0基础上二次开发的程序对管网遭受的灾害环境进行动态模拟,选取节点不同时刻的水压作为考察供水管网节点资源供给量受影响程度的指标,提出了节点失效关联度的概念,应用灰色关联分析方法,计算并比较了网络中其它节点与受损节点间的节点失效关联度,分析了资源的分配与传输和网络拓扑结构两个方面对供水管网级联失效过程的影响特征,初步探讨了灾害环境下生命线系统的级联失效过程。

To analyze the cascading failure process of lifeline systems under disaster environment, this paper took water supply network as an example and simulated its disaster environment by a program which was developed based on EPANET 2.0. Nodal water pressures at different times were chosen to analyze the disasterg effects on the nodal resource supply of water supply network, and a concept of relational grade of nodal failure was proposed. Based on gray relation analysis, the relational grade between the damaged nodes and other nodes was calculated and compared, and then the cascading failure process of water supply network was analyzed from two aspects： distribution and transmission of resources and network topology. Results showed that the cascading failure process of lifeline systems under disaster environment depends on the distribution and transmission of resources and network topology respectively, and the distribution and transmission of resources impacts the cascading failure of lifeline physical network more than its own network characteristics.