全球失衡的新解释:“资产短缺”假说

New Interpretation of Global Imbalances:Asset Shortage Hypothesis

"资产短缺"假说从宏观视角进行资产供需的均衡分析。资产需求是由经济体的价值储存需要与抵押需要构成;资产供应由资产的基础价值构成,其取决于未来资产收益的贴现值。资产需求与资产供应相等时,资产市场达到供需均衡;资产供应赶不上资产需求时,则产生"资产短缺"状态。新兴经济体拥有较高的经济增长率和旺盛的资产需求,但由于金融欠发达,资产供应赶不上资产需求,因此产生"资产短缺"。资产泡沫作为均衡估值的一部分必然存在。新兴经济体的"资产短缺",意味着其经济效率低下和福利损失,并且是导致全球失衡、利率之谜和金融危机的重要原因。改革开放以来,中国经济实现了持续的高增长,逐渐告别产品短缺。自1994年起,中国开始进入"资产短缺"阶段,资产泡沫现象轮番上演,货币政策要学会权衡领域风险和总风险,以防泡沫破裂带来破坏性影响。要挤出泡沫,根本措施在于金融发展,增加资产供给。

The hypothesis of assets shortage analyses assets supply and assets demand in equilibrium from a macro perspective. Asset demand includes the needs to store the value of the economy and mortgage; assets supply includes the fundamental value of the asset, which depends on the discounted value of the future return on assets. If asset demand equals asset supply, asset markets reaches a equilibrium of supply and demand. Assets supply can not kept pace with the asset demand, generating assets shortages. The emerging economies have higher rates of economic growth and strong asset demand, but asset supply cannot keep up with asset demand because of underdeveloped financial, resulting assets shortages. Asset bubbles as part of a balanced valuation must exist. Asset shortage of emerging economies means its economic inefficiency and welfare losses, and is the cause of global imbalances, interest rate conundrum and financial crisis. Since the reform and opening up, China＇s economy has achieved sustained high growth, gradually farewell product shortages. Since 1994, China has begun to enter the stage of asset shortages, asset bubbles turns staged. Monetary policy should learn to weigh the local risk and the aggregate risk, to prevent the devastating effect of bubble burst. To be out of the bubble, the fundamental measure is finance development to increase assets supply.