人民币双边实际汇率与中美贸易关联的实证研究

Empirical research on the Influence of the Sino-U.S. Bilateral Real Exchange Rate

通过建立描述人民币与美元双边实际汇率和中美贸易关系的出口模型,采用协整检验以及误差修正模型探讨双边实际汇率、日元与加元作为竞争国的汇率以及进口国的实际GDP水平对中美各自出口贸易的影响。结果表明:中国的经济发展表现为实际GDP的增长,对美国的出口影响不大,甚至出现负相关;人民币升值对美国的出口有一定的积极作用,美国从中获得的好处比中国要多;在竞争国的对比上,加元比人民币更具优势的影响是显着的,而日元比美元更具优势的影响不明显。人民币汇率升值应采取渐进的方式。

By developing an export model,this article aims to analyze the influence of the bilateral real exchange rate,the exchange rate of the competitor and the real GDP of the import country on the export of China and the U.S.The empirical study shows that the increase of the real GDP reflects the development of Chinese economy,which has little impact on the export of the U.S.Surprisingly,they are negatively correlated.The appreciation of RMB has some positive influence on the export of the U.S.and the U.S.will gain more benefit than China.As to the contrast of the competitors,the hypothesis that the influence of CAD having more advantages than RMB is significant,while the hypothesis that the influence of JPY having more advantages than USD is insignificant.RMB should appreciate gradually.