鄂尔多斯房地产业对经济增长的带动效应研究

Driving Effect Research on Ordos Real Estate Industry to Urban Economic Growth

随着经济活动的增加,鄂尔多斯市在房地产需求递增的同时出现产能过剩。从房地产业来探究鄂尔多斯市经济发展的客观规律,通过分析鄂尔多斯市房地产投资与GDP的协整关系,对鄂尔多斯市1998—2011年房地产投资与GDP序列平稳性检验、协整检验和Grange因果关系检验来确定房地产业与城市经济发展两者之间的因果关系,通过误差修正模型来确定带动效应。结果表明,鄂尔多斯市房地产投资额每增长1%,将带动城市GDP增长0.523905%。

With the increase in economic activity demands for Ordos real estate, kept rising and brought about overcapacity of production. From the point of the tertiary industry, this paper delved into the objective laws of Ordos economic development. Adopting stationary test, cointegration analy- sis and Grange causality test research approach of time series variable in econometrics, this paper studied the causal relationship of real estate industry and economic development in Ordos from 1998 - 2011. Along with this idea, the driving effect could be determined by the error correction model and investment efficiency was calculated. The results showed that the growth in Ordos real estate investment was to go up by 1%, which in GDP was turned up 0.523905 %.