基于层次分析法的海外耕地投资风险评价

AHP-based Risk Evaluation on Overseas Farmland Investments

研究目的是对海外耕地投资的风险因子进行识别、对整体风险进行评价,为国家制定海外耕地投资政策及战略提供参考。研究方法为层次分析法。结果表明,海外耕地投资首先应当防范政治环境风险,并从国家政策支持、监管和企业自身角度防范海外耕地投资活动的资源风险,以及相关投资主体的技术风险和道德风险。认为进行海外耕地投资,国家要以"互惠、共赢"的合作方式与东道国保持良好的外交和对话关系,并树立起海外耕地投资企业"利益互惠、和谐共赢"的指导思想,同时从制定多重支持政策的角度加大对海外耕地投资企业的支持力度。

The purpose of this paper was to provide references of making policy and strategy of overseas farmland investments for China through identifying and evaluating the overseas farmland investments risks. Method of analytic hierarchy process was employed. The results indicated that the political risk should be firstly prevented while implementing overseas farmland investments. The resources risk in the proceeding of overseas farmland investing and the technical risk and moral hazard of the investment enterprises themselves should be prevented by the support of national policy and supervising and the investment enterprises＇ self- administration. It was concluded that China should maintain good diplomacy and dialogue state with the host countries by the cooperation way of mutually benefitting and winning and established the thought of ＂benefit mutual win - win situation＂ for the investment enterprises, meanwhile, intensify efforts to support the investment enterprises by making multiple supporting policy.