基于可拓工程法的海底隧道施工突水后果严重性分析

Analysis of consequences seriousness of water-inrush for subsea tunnel construct based on extenics engineering method

施工突水是海底隧道建设过程中最大的安全风险,而对其后果严重性分析是风险评价的一个重要组成部分.由于海底隧道的突水后果严重性很难用定量的方式加以描述,无法采用经典的直接测算法和社会经济测算法,实现对海底隧道突水事故发生后灾难程度的定量评价.基于可拓工程法,依托厦门翔安海底隧道,将海底隧道突水风险后果分为生命损失、社会损失、环境影响损失和经济损失包括直接经济损失和间接经济损失,对海底隧道穿越海域风化深槽施工突水后果严重性进行半定量化的科学评价.

Water-inrush is the biggest safety risk during subsea tunnel construct,and the analysis of consequences seriousness is one of the important parts in risk assessment.Because it is difficult to describe the consequences loss in unified form and assess consequences seriousness in traditional economic evaluation method,combined with the left line F1 weathered trough section in Xiamen subsea tunnel,extenics engineering method is applied in assessment of consequences seriousness of water-inrush during subsea tunnel construct.It will determine the severity of consequences of water-inrush and give some guides for similar projects in consequences loss assessment.