农村剩余劳动力人数估测及流转因素的探究——基于武汉市1993—2008数据分析

Estimating the Number of Rural Surplus labor Transfer Factors and Explore of the Central City——Basing on the example of Wuhan City

在研究农村剩余劳动力情况时,文章以武汉市为代表研究对象,估测了武汉市农村剩余劳动力人数,发现该市农村剩余劳动力呈现递增趋势。通过采用主成分因子分析法和引力模型进行拟合,文章进一步发现如下因素促进了武汉市农村剩余劳动力的流转:城镇投资占社会总投资的比例、农村机械总动力、城乡收入差距;而阻碍流转的因素则包括:农村人均耕地面积、农村科教文卫投入占社会固定总投资的比例、城市失业率、农作物受灾面积占农村耕地面积的比例、农村年末总人口。

This paper estimates the number of rural surplus labor in Wuhan;And finding that there is an increasing trend of rural surplus labor of this city.By using the principal factor analysis method and the gravity model,this article finds that the factors which promote the City Wuhan＇s rural surplus Labor transferring are： the rate of the Urban investment in social investment 、Mechanical power in rural areas、Urban-rural income gap;The factors which obstruct rural surplus Labor to transfer include： the rural per capita arable land、Rural social science and education account for a fixed proportion of total investment、urban unemployment,crop disaster area accounts for the proportion of total arable land in rural areas,the rural total population in the end of year.