中国CO_2排放与经济增长间关系的实证分析——基于双向分量回归模型

Empirical Study on Relationship between Carbon Dioxide Emission and Economic Growth in China: Based on Two-way Quantile Regression Model

采用双向分量回归法探讨1985—2009年中国CO2排放与经济增长的关系,并且在模型中引入共同边界技术效率比,以解决一般固定效应模型无法捕捉不随时间变动的因素对两者间内在关系的影响这一问题。结果显示:经济发展水平越低的地区,人均GDP对人均CO2排放量的弹性系数越大;随着经济发展水平的提高,人均CO2排放量与人均GDP的关系曲线逐渐平缓,低、中收入地区的EKC不呈倒U型,高收入地区的EKC呈不明显的倒U型。

This paper uses the two-way quantile regression to study the relationship between China＇s carbon dioxide emission and economic growth,and introduces the meta-technical ratio into the model to catch the time-invariant factors which may affect the relationship of them, but can＇t be identified by using the least square dummy variable model. The result shows as follows：the less development the area is,the greater the elasticity that per capital GDP to per capital carbon dioxide emissions is;the relationship curve between per capital carbon dioxide emission and per capital GDP becomes more smooth with economic develop ment, and EKCs of low and middle development areas don＇t take on a inverted U- shaped,and EKC of high development area slightly do.