电力系统超短期负荷预测算法及应用

Ultra-short-term Load Forecasting Algorithm and Application

简述了超短期负荷预测的概念和应用.将目前预测方法分为传统预测算法和现代预测算法,介绍了各种算法的原理、适用范围,以及大规模新能源并网运行对超短期负荷预测的影响.对比分析各种算法的优点和不足,提出了对历史数据预处理、建立分时段的综合预测模型,以及考虑气象因素等提高超短期负荷预测精度的措施.

The concept and application of ultra-short term load forecasting are introduced in brief, and the current algorithms are classified into traditional forecasting and modem forecasting. Then the principles, scope of application and the influence of the large-scale new energy sources connected to the grid are introduced. The advantages and disadvantages of these algorithms are compared. The pretreatment of the history data is put forward, a comprehensive forecasting model in divided periods is set up and the weather factors are considered in raising forecast accuracy.