捕捞压力和气候变化对东海马面鲀渔获量的影响

Influence of fishing pressure and climate change on filefish catches in East China Sea

为了研究捕捞压力和气候变化对东海马面鲀(Navodon spp.)渔获量的影响,对1976年～2006年的东海马面鲀渔获量进行了分析。东海马面鲀渔获量可划分成因捕捞效应所产生的趋势变化和因气候变动所导致的渔获量变动,前者可用Fox模型来拟合。Fox模型拟合结果显示,东海马面鲀渔获量与捕捞努力量显著相关(P<0.01)。移除捕捞压力增长引起的变化趋势后,其渔获量变动与热带气旋影响指数、东海海表温度、东海冬季季风和黄海夏季季风呈显著正偏相关(P<0.03),与热带气旋影响指数、黄海冬季季风及长江流域和东海沿岸降雨呈显著负偏相关(P<0.03)。根据捕捞努力量和气候变量对东海马面鲀渔获量进行拟合,结果显示,拟合的渔获量与实际渔获量显著相关(R=0.91,P<0.01),说明捕捞压力和气候变化显著影响东海马面鲀渔获量的变动。此外,由于未来气候的变化,东海马面鲀渔获量可能出现更大波动。

We analyzed the filefish （Navodon spp. ） catches from 1976 to 2006 in the East China Sea （ECS） to investigate the influence of fishing pressure and climatic change on filefish catches in that area. Filefish catches in the ECS include the variation trend of catches caused by fishing effects and alteration of catches influenced by climate change. The former can be fitted by the Fox model, and the results show that filefish catches are significantly associated with fishing efforts （P 〈 0. 01 ）. After removing variation trend of catches caused by increasing fishing pressure, the variation of catches is significantly partial correlated with tropical cyclone impact in- dex, sea surface temperature in the ECS, winter monsoon in the ECS and summer monsoon in the Yellow Sea （P 〈 0. 03 ）, while neg- atively partial correlated with tropical cyclone impact index, winter monsoon in the Yellow Sea, annual precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley and coastal region of the ECS （P 〈 0. 03 ）. The catches fitted by fishing efforts and climatic variables are significantly cor- related to the actual catches in the ECS （R = 0. 91, P 〈 0.01 ）, which indicates that variation of filefish catches is mainly affected by fishing pressure and climate change. Besides, according to the future climate scenario, the filefish catches will experience greater fluctuation.