摘要
Recent trends and variability in tropical cyclone （TC） frequency and intensity are examined for TCs that affected China, with particular focus on those TCs that affected China＇s key economic zones （e.g., the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin area）. The results show that the frequency of TCs affecting China weakly declined during the 1980s and 2000s, followed by a slight increase. The time series of TC frequency shows insignificant variations at periods of 2 6 yr during the past 60 years; these variations are significantly correlated with ENSO activity. The frequency of TCs affecting the Pearl River Delta area is strongly correlated with the ENSO cycle while the frequency of TCs affecting the Yangtze River Delta is not. The TC frequency varies differently for TCs of different intensities. Tropical storms （TSs） affecting China were small in total number, but have clearly increased in frequency. The frequencies of severe tropical storm （STS）, typhoon （TY）, severe typhoon （STY）, and super typhoon （super TY） affecting China declined significantly during the 1970s and 1980s, but the numbers of STY and super TY have increased over the 2000s. The typical intensity of TCs affecting China declined over the 60-yr timeframe, but increased over the most recent 10 years （2000-2010）. This increase in the intensity of TCs has particularly impacted the Yangtze River Delta area, which has experienced increased numbers of STYs and super TYs. These tendencies are observed in changes of the maximum intensity of TCs affecting both China in general and the Yangtze River Delta in particular during both the full 60-yr analysis period and the latest 10-yr period; however, these tendencies are not observed in changes of the average intensity of TCs. By contrast, both the extreme intensity and the average intensity of TCs affecting the Pearl River Delta have decreased throughout the analysis period, including the most recent decade.
Recent trends and variability in tropical cyclone （TC） frequency and intensity are examined for TCs that affected China, with particular focus on those TCs that affected China＇s key economic zones （e.g., the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin area）. The results show that the frequency of TCs affecting China weakly declined during the 1980s and 2000s, followed by a slight increase. The time series of TC frequency shows insignificant variations at periods of 2 6 yr during the past 60 years; these variations are significantly correlated with ENSO activity. The frequency of TCs affecting the Pearl River Delta area is strongly correlated with the ENSO cycle while the frequency of TCs affecting the Yangtze River Delta is not. The TC frequency varies differently for TCs of different intensities. Tropical storms （TSs） affecting China were small in total number, but have clearly increased in frequency. The frequencies of severe tropical storm （STS）, typhoon （TY）, severe typhoon （STY）, and super typhoon （super TY） affecting China declined significantly during the 1970s and 1980s, but the numbers of STY and super TY have increased over the 2000s. The typical intensity of TCs affecting China declined over the 60-yr timeframe, but increased over the most recent 10 years （2000-2010）. This increase in the intensity of TCs has particularly impacted the Yangtze River Delta area, which has experienced increased numbers of STYs and super TYs. These tendencies are observed in changes of the maximum intensity of TCs affecting both China in general and the Yangtze River Delta in particular during both the full 60-yr analysis period and the latest 10-yr period; however, these tendencies are not observed in changes of the average intensity of TCs. By contrast, both the extreme intensity and the average intensity of TCs affecting the Pearl River Delta have decreased throughout the analysis period, including the most recent decade.
基金
Supported by the National Science and Technology Support Program of China (2012BAC20B05)
