爱尔兰房地产泡沫的教训与启示

Lessons and implications of Irish property bubble

20世纪90年代至2007年，爱尔兰经济快速发展、外资大量流人带动爱尔兰房地产价格不断攀升，在财政货币政策、监管放松等多项因素作用下，房地产市场走向非理性繁荣，造成资源配置扭曲，损害本国的出口竞争力。文章通过数据建模，检验了这一时期爱尔兰房价和进出口贸易对经济的拉动作用，从计量分析角度揭示片面发展房地产业对放大经济波动的影响；指出应正确处理房地产与政府税收之间的关系，避免房地产价格泡沫损害实体经济，并在逆周期的宏观审·l真政策框架中纳入杠杆率等监测指标，防范经济顺周期风险。

In the 1990s to 2007, the rapid development of the Irish economy and the massive inflow of foreign capital have surged the property price in Ireland. Under the influence of loose fiscal and monetary policies and relaxing supervision, the property market moved towards irrational prosperity, causing distortion in resource allocation and hampering the country＇s competitiveness. This article examines the stimulating effect of Irish property price and imports and exports on Irish economy in this period by data modeling, and reveals the impact of lopsided real estate development on magnifying economic fluctuations from the perspective of quantitative analysis. It points out that the relationship between the real estate and government taxation should be properly handled to prevent property bubble from impairing real economy, and monitoring indicators such as the leverage ratio should be included in the reverse cycle macroprudential policy framework to guard against the risk of pro-cyclicality.