高速铁路桥梁沉降预测模型的对比分析

Comparative Analysis on the High-speed Railway Bridges Settlement Prediction

介绍高速铁路桥梁沉降变形的规律及沉降预测的判定标准,结合某高速铁路桥梁沉降观测资料,分别用规范双曲线法、修正双曲线法、三点法、Asaoka法和GM(1,1)法进行计算分析,通过比较预测沉降量与实测沉降量的残差并计算各模型的曲线回归相关系数,对比得出适用于高速铁路桥梁沉降预测的方法。

This paper introduces the law and criteria of the high-speed railway bridges settlement deformation,and combines with the observation data of a high-speed railway project,standard hyperbolic method,amended hyperbolic meth od,three-point method,Asaoka method and GM（1,1）meth od are all used for calculation and analysis,a proper method for the high-speed railway bridges settlement prediction is obtained,which is based on the residual error between prediction data and observed data as well as the correlation coefficient of curvilinear regression between different models.