我国人均卫生总费用增长的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on the Growth ofNational Per Capita Total Health Expenditures

本文利用2001-2010年的统计数据,通过SPSS统计软件,构建了人均卫生总费用供需模型,对人均卫生总费用增长进行了实证回归分析。结果发现:卫生费用增长快于国内生产总值增长,但弹性相对较小,仅为1.026;卫生支出主要受到人口调整数、城镇居民人均可支配收入的影响;城镇居民医疗保健价格指数、卫生机构数目则不能稳定地解释卫生费用增长;卫生费用增长问题应在供需相统一的关系中加以讨论。

The supply and demand models of per capita total health expenditures are established with regression analysis using SPSS statistic software, based on the statistical data for 2001 -2010. The results showed that： the growth of health expenditures is faster than that of GDP, but the elasticity is relatively small, only 1. 026 ; the growth of health expenditures is mainly affected by the adjusted population and the disposable income of urban residents; the price index of medical ＆health care for urban resident and the number of health institutions cannot stably explain the growth of health expenditures ; the issue on the growth of health expenditures should be discussed in the relationship between supply and demand.